Monthly Archives: November 2013

Wescoal Holdings – H1:14 Results – A Precursor of Prospects

H1:14 Results Note – Share Code: WSL – Market Cap: R374m – PE: 12.0x – DY: 1.3%

H1:14 Results: Intibane & Higher Coal Price Lift Results

  • Revenue rose 33% to R466m (H1:13 – R351m), driven mostly by Intibane’s three month contribution and a slightly higher average coal price. Operating leverage lifted EBITDA by 75% and HEPS grew 65% to 11.4cps (H1:13 – 6.9cps).
  • The Coal Trading segment saw lower volumes squeezing margin and really had quite a dismal trading period. The conclusion of the MacPhail acquisition (still contingent on Competition Commission approval) will likely add significantly to this segment in H2:14E and, especially, FY 15E.
  • Despite investing c.R51m during the period, the Group was highly cash generative and management sees the potential for further mid-tier coal asset acquisitions as majors continue to dispose of non-core assets from their portfolios.

Our Thoughts: MacPhail Exciting, but Awaiting CompCom Approval

  • The only outstanding condition for the MacPhail acquisition is the Competition Commission (CompCom) approval.
  • We have adjusted our forecasts to reflect our anticipated effective date for MacPhail (13 November 2013), assuming the CompCom approves of the deal, and have inserted c.R2m worth of restructuring costs into H2:14 while modelling annual savings of c.R9m being realized from FY 15E onwards.
  • Downside event risk is if the CompCom does not approve of the merger of Chandler and MacPhail. In this event, our 12m TP would drop by at least c.14cps or c.5%.

Forecast, Valuation and Implied Return: 12m TP Raised 17%

  • We lift our fair value by 19% to 253cps (previous: 213cps), implying a PE of 15.1x. This PE is not very illustrative, as both Elandspruit and MacPhail are not yet adding to profits.
  • We raise our 12m TP by 17% to 287cps (previous 12m TP: 246cps), implying a 43% return on an Exit PE of 6.4x.
  • As Wescoal is a junior miner, we draw your attention to the risks we identify in the body of this report.