Category Archives: Astoria Investments (ARA)

Research reports on Astoria Investments Ltd (code: ARA), an investment holding company.

Astoria Investments Ltd – Q3:25 Results Note – Probable Delisting

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R506m – Discount to Offer: c.9%

Astoria Investments – Q3:25 – Results NoteDownload

Q3:25 Results: Not the big news…

Astoria reported Q3:25 results with NAV in USD growing +3% to $0.64 per share and decreasing 6% in ZAR to 1099cps.
After prior and current period realisations of ISA Carstens and Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH), NAV now c.31% cash.

Commentary: The big news – Proposed delisting (& unbundling)

Astoria has proposed a repurchase offer, proposed delisting (off the JSE and SEM) and the unbundling Goldrush:
- The share repurchase offer is priced at 815cps, limited to a maximum of 42.5% of shares, and is conditional on a range of items, most notably the resolution to approve delisting Astoria from the JSE and SEM exchanges.
- In the event of the delisting being approved, Astoria will also unbundle 7.5m Goldrush preference shares (12 GRSP shares for every 100 Astoria shares held) or c.83cps of value (before the SENS announcement) or c.72cps of value as of the date of this note (based on GRSP’s share price).
Irrevocable undertakings have been made to vote in favour of all resolutions (59.33% disinterested vote) and not to accept the repurchase offer (57.81% will go “private” with the company’s delisting, i.e. 42.19% of shares are left to accept the cash portion of the share repurchase before the delisting).
Given the irrevocables, the pricing of the offer (in line with our ‘fair value’ without a control premium given that control is not changing in this repurchase) and, thus, the likelihood of a positive fairness opinion, we believe it is probable that Astoria’s repurchase, unbundling and delisting will proceed.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Delisting Price

Given the pricing of the transaction to delist and the probability of its approval, we update our fair value and 12m TP to the transaction price of 887cps or c.9% higher than the share price.
Interestingly, this essentially lines up with our Sum-of-the-Parts fair value for Astoria of c.905cps after a 17% HoldCo discount (previously: 16.3%).

Astoria Investments – Q3:25 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments Ltd – H1:25 Results Note – Lots of Dry Powder on Hand

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R490m – Discount to NAV: c.28%

Astoria Investments – H1:25 – Results NoteDownload

H1:25 Results: Beyond Diamonds

Group NAV slipped -3.5% to $59.85 per share (FY 24: $61.99) or down -9% to 1065cps (FY 24: 1171cps) as the continued diamond bear market took the diamond investments from a c.113cps contribution to Group NAV (end of FY 24) to zero.
If the c.113cps diamond investments are reversed from FY 24’s NAV, the Group’s NAV would have grown slightly (+3% p/p).
Beyond diamonds, positive developments include a clean exit from ISA Carstens, strong performances from Leatt Corp and Goldrush, and OIH’s exit from A-Tec. Following the period, OIH repurchased some of Astoria’s shares for R105m in cash.

Commentary: Capital Allocation Options

Given all the realisations during (and post) the H1:25 period, the Group is currently quite cash flush, and where management allocates this capital will be pivotal in future NAV.
Perhaps illustrative of management’s capital allocation intentions is that one of these realisations lowered the Group’s significant exposure to OIH (i.e. dropping portfolio concentration) and another was CFD’s in Astoria’s own share.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: More than Priced In

We estimate that Astoria’s share is trading at c.28% discount to NAV (Previously: 36%), which includes the partial realisation of OIH, the cash receipt from ISA Carstens and Leatt Corp and Goldrush’s latest share prices (and exchange rates). Cash (& cash equivalent) now forms c.24% of the Group’s NAV.
With c.24% of Astoria’s NAV is net cash, the market is basically paying book value for the Group’s investments and offering investors this net cash for “free”.
If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.16.3% (15.9%), we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.913cps (Previously: 858cps) or c.16% higher than the share price.

Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1076cps (Previously: 1020cps) that implies a potential return of c.36% from the current share price.

Astoria Investments – H1:25 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments Ltd – Results Note – Rough in the Diamond

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R418m – Discount to NAV: c.35% (c.32% assuming Diamond investments worth zero)

Astoria Investments – Q1:25 – Results NoteDownload

Q1:25 Results: Diamond Valuations Written Down

While Q1 and Q3 results from Astoria are often more administrative (unlisted valuations are usually only updated at Q2 and Q4 period ends), this quarter saw continued pressure on diamond prices and management have prudently written the Marine Diamond valuation to nil and impaired the Trans Hex (i.e. Land Diamond) valuation by 55% to $1.2m.
This resulted in the Group’s NAV dropping by -6% in USD & -9% in ZAR (the Rand also strengthened over this quarter or, more accurately, the US Dollar weakened) when compared to the prior quarter (31 December 2024).

Commentary: Gone but Not Nil

Despite a zero value, the Marine business continues to operate and can be considered a “nil value option” in Astoria’s NAV.
Consensus in the diamond market appears to expect a modest recovery in rough diamond prices (mid-single digits) around late 2025. This recovery is dependent on supply chain efficiencies, marketing effectiveness, and economic stability.
Likewise, consensus appears bearish on a full return to pre-pandemic due to the prevalence of lab-grown diamonds.

Idex Diamond Index – 5-year Spot Chart

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: More than Priced In

Astoria’s share is trading at c.35% discount to NAV (Previously: 30%) once we update its NAV with current spot/listed prices. This discount is closer to c.32% if we assume that the remaining 4% of NAV in Trans Hex is worth zero.
If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.15.9% (unchanged), we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.858cps (Previously: 966cps) or c.27% higher than the current share price – but, this fair value is including the diamond valuations as is (i.e. Marine at nil & Land halved) and note our comment about “nil value options” above. Any recovery in the diamond market would translate into upside here.
Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1020cps (Previously: 1150cps) that implies a potential return of c.51% from the current share price.

Astoria Investments – Q1:25 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments Ltd – Results Note – Marine Diamond Operations Take a Hit

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R496m – Discount to NAV: c.30%

Astoria Investments – FY 24 – Results NoteDownload

FY 24 Results: Disappointing Diamond Market

Astoria’s NAV per share decreased to 61.99 USD cents (R11.71) as at 31 December 2024, compared to 79.47 USD cents (R14.54) at the end of the previous financial year, representing a decrease of 22% in USD and 19.5% in ZAR.
The primary drivers for the decrease in NAV were the decline in the value of Trans Hex Marine operations and the market prices of the listed assets, Goldrush and Leatt. OIH performed well during the period.
OIH’s is exiting A-Tec (sold at approximately the original capital value) and Astoria has accepted a signed sales agreement for its 49% shareholding in ISA Carstens for R66.8m and the outstanding loan from Astoria Treasury for R4.2m.

Commentary: Upcoming Capital Allocation Decisions

It is worth noting that both A-Tec (held in OIH) and ISA Carstens exits are at-or-above what Astoria’s NAV was valuing these investments at, which lends comforting evidence as to the tangibility of the Group’s NAV.
Furthermore, both exits free up cash that can be deployed. We expect OIH to use most of this cash to grow while Astoria may well apply the cash freed up from ISA Carsten’s exit towards share buybacks given the discount to NAV in the share price making this action quite accretive.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Widening of Discount

We estimate Astoria’s current NAV as $0.62 or 1149cps a share, implying that the current 800cps share price is at a 30% discount to its NAV.
If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.15.9% (Previously: 13.6%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.966cps (Previously: 1216cps) or c.21.% higher than the current share price.

Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1150cps (Previously: 1433cps) that implies a potential return of c.44% from the current share price.

Astoria Investments – FY 24 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments Ltd – Results Note – Crystalizing NAV with Optionality

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R537m – Discount to NAV: c.39%

Astoria Investments – Q3:24 – Results NoteDownload

Q3:24 Results: Headwinds of a Stronger Rand

Astoria reports quarterly but management only update unlisted valuations in the Q2 and Q4 reports. Thus, the key change over the Q3:24 period was a stronger Rand (c.9% stronger on a 12m-rolling basis and c.6% stronger versus the start of the current reporting period versus the USD).
With this context, Astoria’s NAV per share increased by +2.1% in USD and decreased by 3.7% in ZAR for the Q3:24 period (as compared to NAV at the start of financial year).

Astoria’s NAV components:

Commentary: ISA Carstens (Potential) Exit Proving Solidity of NAV

Astoria has received a non-binding offer for its stake in ISA Carstens &, along with fellow shareholders, final terms are being negotiated. While the offer is non-binding, its pricing is broadly in line with Astoria’s fair value for ISA Carstens. This gives us a great data point for the realism of management’s fair values for their unlisted investments (the 3^rd-party offer aligns with Astoria’s valuation). Finally, this potentially turns c.8% of the Group’s NAV into cash which would provide management with ammo for future investment options (i.e. embeds some exciting optionality for future capital allocations).
Outdoor Investment Holding continues to trade well, Leatt Corp’s latest quarterly hints at a trough being reached, RECM Calibre has changed its name to Goldrush Holdings (code: GRSP), low diamond prices continue (Land is doing relatively well while Marine has its ship in dry dock for well-timed maintenance), & VCG continues corporatising and scaling.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Discount a Little Tighter

Astoria’s share is trading at c.39% discount to the current NAV (Previously: 45%) once we update its NAV with current prices.
If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.13.6% (Previously: 14.4%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.1216cps (Previously: 1204cps) or c.41% higher than the current share price.
Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1433cps (Previously: 1417cps) that implies a potential return of c.66% from the current share price.

Astoria Investments – Q3:24 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments – Results Note – Navigating the Rough Well

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R484m – Discount to NAV: 45%

Astoria Investments – Q2:24 – Results NoteDownload

H1:24/Q2:24 Results: Fully-invested with OIH Paying Dividends

With a stronger Rand and lower RACP (soon-to-be renamed ‘Goldrush Holdings’) and Leatt Corp share prices, Astoria’s USD-NAV and Rand-NAV softened -2.9% and -3.5% respectively.
During the six months, Astoria invested more into Leatt Corp (LINK), and received a legacy agterskot payout. We currently consider the Group fully invested, but dividend flows from Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH) should provide incremental capital for deployment & compounding.
Finally—as per policy—management have refreshed the Group’s unlisted company valuations, which we specifically discuss in the context of their performance and their peers.

Commentary: Leatt, Goldrush & Diamond Headwinds Cannot Last

OIH saw broad growth (excluding Family Pet Centre), Trans Hex (Land & Marine) somewhat bucked diamond trends with good pricing, ISA Carstens showed its quality, and the Vehicle Care Group (VCG) steadily (and responsibly) began scaling.
Unfortunately, Leatt Corp (trading its way through excessively stocked wholesale markets) and Goldrush (loadshedding hurting EBITDA margins) saw their share prices under pressure during the period, which created some headwinds to NAV.
Loadshedding (appears) gone for the moment and the wholesale market for Leatt should righten itself over time, thus implying upsides in both businesses from these levels.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Widening of Discount

Astoria’s share is trading at c.45% discount to the current NAV (Previously: 40%) once we update its NAV with current prices.
If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.14.4% (Previously: 14.2%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.1204cps (Previously: 1162cps) or c.54% higher than the current share price.
Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1417cps (Previously: 1386cps) which implies a potential return of c.82% from the current share price.

Astoria Investments – Q2:24 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments – Results Note – Leatt Investment Concluded

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R508m – Discount to NAV: 40%

Astoria Investments – Q1:24 – Results NoteDownload

Q1:24 Results: Currency headwinds

Astoria Investments reported its Q1:24 results that show Net Asset Value (NAV) per share decreased -7.7% and -4.8% in USD and ZAR respectively as currency headwinds impacted translations and Goldrush (code: RACP) and Leatt’s (code: LEAT) share price pressure endured for this period.
As a reminder, Astoria’s reporting policy for Q1 and Q3 periods is not to perform detailed valuations of unlisted investments (except when developments require an immediate and material change in value). Price changes for listed investments and currencies are reflected on an ongoing basis.
In our updated Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation below and on the next page, we have done the same and updated our view for the latest share prices and exchange rates.

Commentary: Further Leatt Investments Concluded

Astoria’s further acquisition of Leatt Corp’s shares was concluded during this period. We discuss this investment and the underlying business in some detail in our previous results note (LINK) and consider it an attractively priced asset with the deal using Astoria’s equity in a non-dilutive manner.
Late in April, Astoria’s management hosted an investor event that was recorded and can be viewed here: LINK.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Above Average Discount

Updating Astoria’s NAV to current prices, the share is trading at c.40% discount to the current NAV (Previously: 42%).

If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.14.2% (Previously: 13.9%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c,1162cps (Previously: 1192cps) or c.42% higher than the current share price.
Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1386cps (Previously: 1420cps) that implies a potential return of c.69% from the current share price.

Astoria Investments – Q1:24 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments – Results Note – Discount Appears too Wide

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R498m – Discount to NAV: 42%

Astoria Investments – FY 23 – Results NoteDownload

FY 23 Results: A Mixed Bag of Results

Astoria’s USD Net Asset Value (NAV) felt pressure and slipped marginally to $0.7947 per share (FY 22: $0.8266 per share), though the Rand NAV was slightly up at 1454cps (FY 22: 1406cps) as the Rand weakened over the period.
A decline in diamond prices was a headwind on diamond interests, loadshedding hurt Goldrush’s LPM performance & Leatt’s share price followed its sales down over an extra-ordinary trading period.
On the other hand, Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH) traded (really) strongly (see relative sales performance below), ISA Carstens saw +10% enrolment growth & Vehicle Care Group (VCG) is proving its model nicely.

Commentary: Conservative NAV & Upside Optionality

Other than valuing A-Tec in OIH separately as a Norwegian asset and lifting ISA Carsten’s Academy multiple from 6.0x to 7.0x (but it remains well below other listed educational stock multiples), Astoria’s unlisted valuations remain largely consistent with history and, arguably, conservative.
A FY 24E normalisation in diamond prices & in Leatt Corp’s trading environment could point to upside in Astoria’s NAV (Leatt & diamond interests are a third of the Group’s NAV).

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Above Average Discount

Updating Astoria’s NAV to current prices, the share is trading at an above-sector-average c.42% discount to current NAV (Previously: 34%) despite its strong growth in NAV (+32.4% y/y CAGR in Rand-NAV since management took over on 1 December 2020)
If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.13.9% (Previously: 15.0%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c,1192cps (Previously: 1152cps) or c.49% higher than the current share price.
Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1420cps (Previously: 1365cps) which implies a potential return of c.77% from the current share price.

Astoria Investments – FY 23 – Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments – Results Note – Wider Discount & (Still) Under Cautionary

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R504m – Discount to NAV: 34%

Astoria Investments – Q3:23 Results NoteDownload

Q3:23 Results: Softer Quarter

In Q3:23, Astoria reported a flat ZAR-NAV of 1408cps (FY 22: 1406cps), though a weaker ZAR (11% weaker against the USD from FY 22 close to Q3:23 reporting date) pushed the USD-valuation slightly lower to $0.74 per share (FY 22: $0.83ps).
Astoria typically only fairly values its unlisted investments with its Q2 (i.e. H1) & Q4 (i.e. Full-year) results &, thus, this result involves only updated share prices & exchange rates.

Commentary: Loadshedding Impacted Goldrush

RECM & Calibre Preferences Shares’ (code: RACP) lower share price shaved c.39cps from Astoria’s SOTPs, & this appears driven by pressure at Goldrush from loadshedding (i.e. lost trading hours, higher costs from generators & consumer pressure). It is encouraging to see that Goldrush’s average revenue per (active) machine grew +5% y/y & that the Sports Betting & Online Gaming divisions grew strongly (+18% & +51% respectively). Cash flow was strong at Goldrush & we expect its operations to stabilize as it solves for power & optimises for the environment, thus we remain optimistic on RACP’s prospects.
As noted above, the other significant drag on Astoria’s USD-NAV has been the 11% weaker ZAR/USD exchange rate.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: (Still) Under Cautionary…

Updating Astoria’s NAV to current prices, the share price is trading at a c.34% discount to current NAV (Previously: 24%).
If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.15.0% (Previously: 14.5%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.1152cps (Previously: 1213cps) or c.22% higher than the current share price.
Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1365cps (Previously: 1440cps) that implies a potential return of c.52% from the current share price.

Note: The share is (still) trading under a cautionary announcement due to a potential acquisition.

Astoria Investments – Q3:23 Results NoteDownload

Astoria Investments – Results Note – Durable Performance & Cautionary Issued

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R604m – Discount to NAV: 24%

Astoria Investments – Q2:23 Results NoteDownload

Q2:23 Results: Currency and Market Headwinds

Astoria reported Net Asset Value of $0.748ps (FY 22: $0.827ps) or R14.08ps (FY 22: R14.06ps) with growth in Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH) offset by lower RACP (i.e. Goldrush) & Leatt Corp share prices. A weaker Rand offset this in the Rand-based NAV but detracted against the USD-based NAV.
Unlisted valuations remain conservative with multiples unchanged.

Commentary: Businesses Robust & Investments Degearing

Importantly—given its 48% of NAV—OIH is trading well, growing both footprint and store-level trading density.
Broadly, underlying businesses are performing &, even those facing headwinds, are trading resiliently and offer upside the moment the broader economy/ies improve.
Along with existing businesses growing their profits, other potential future fair value moves include both the Family Pet Centre (FPC) and Vehicle Care Group’s (VCG) refined business models showing success. Likewise, Trans Hex Marine’s historic cost should be fairly valued in future results.
During H1:23, Astoria paid back some of its investment-level debt (we expect this to continue). This adds to NAV & lowers financial risk while freeing capacity to regear for another acquisition (see the cautionary noted below).

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Under Cautionary…

Updating Astoria’s NAV to current prices, the share price is trading at a c.24% discount to current NAV (Previously: 34%).
If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.14.5% (Previously: 14.0%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.1213cps (Previously: 1192cps) or c.11% higher than the current share price.
Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1440cps (Previously: 1422cps) that implies a potential return of c.33% from the current share price.

Note: The share is currently trading under a cautionary announcement due to a potential acquisition.