Share Code: SBP – Market Cap: R2.9bn – Dividend Yield: 1.0%
H1:22 Results: Better than expected
- Sabvest’s Net Asset Value (NAV) grew +10.9% p/p and +26.1% y/y to 10388cps (FY 21: 9371cps) driven by strong performances almost across all its investments that beat our full-year estimates.
- The Group concluded investments in ARB Holdings and Halewood International South Africa during the period.
- Despite this investment activity, the Group received good dividend flows, remains relatively lowly geared and management has declared a +50% y/y growth in dividend to 30cps (H1:21 – 20cps).
Thoughts: H1:22 growth likely to continue in H2:22E
- ARB Holdings and Halewood are currently being carried at cost. While we expect operational growth in ARB to carry this investment value upwards, Halewood’s investment price appears quite conservative, and we expect both operational and re-rating to lift this valuation going forward.
- Likewise, DNI-4PL, Masimong & Apex are all growing quickly, ITL Holdings’ global group has recovered strongly and SA Bias’ Flowmax appears to be on the front foot for acquisitions.
- Finally, coupled with Sabvest’s superb capital allocation, relatively lowly-geared centre and its ability to buy-back its own shares below NAV, and it is likely that the good growth rate in H1:22 carries comfortably into H2:22E (and beyond).
Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Lots of value available
- Updating the Group’s NAV for the latest market prices & taking out our present valued “HoldCo discount”, we arrive at a defendable (post-discount) fair value for Sabvest Capital shares of 8894cps (previously: 7487cps) or +22% higher than the current share price.
- Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we see the Group’s 12m TP as 10511cps (previously: 8825cps) with an implied return of +44%.
Refer to our Initiation of Coverage for more background.