Share Code: REN – Market Cap: R3.7bn – PE: -105x – DY: 0.0%
H1:23 Results: Delayed but moving swiftly forward
- Renergen’s revenue was flat at R1.2m and the Group reported a loss of -19.31cps (H1:21 -21.05cps) as it neared production status.
- Phase One is moments from producing gas and, although delayed against the original timeframe, this will be an exciting moment as the Group transitions from a developer to a producer.
- Phase Two funding is progressing well, having issued shares to Ivanhoe Mines (though the larger equity deal expired), the CEF has agreed to inject R1bn into the Project, & various blue chip debt funders have expressed interest in funding up to $1.2bn of debt for the project.
Our Thoughts: Enviable Position
- While Phase One delays are disappointing, the underlying fundamentals and attractive economics of the Virginia Gas Project remain and are further highlighted by the interest in funding Phase Two.
- The conclusion of the well-priced CEF R1bn equity investment is a strong positive and, we believe, the expiry of the Ivanhoe equity deal is a net positive by avoiding expensive dilution.
- Furthermore, the large pool of interested debt funders into Phase Two means that Renergen has both time to find the appropriate equity funding and the flexibility to pick terms.
- All in all, we believe that Renergen is in an enviable position for a developer as it transitions into a fully-fledged gas producer.
Valuation and Implied Return: Share Price Disconnected from Value
- We see Renergen’s fair value at c.6700cps (previously: 6337cps) and 12m TP c. 8000cps (previously: 7491cps).
- With a range of fair values from c.5000cps to c.6700cps (CEF deal implies c.6600cps for REN shares), what is clear is that REN’s share price deviates substantially from even the low-end of this range.