Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R604m – Discount to NAV: 24%
Q2:23 Results: Currency and Market Headwinds
- Astoria reported Net Asset Value of $0.748ps (FY 22: $0.827ps) or R14.08ps (FY 22: R14.06ps) with growth in Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH) offset by lower RACP (i.e. Goldrush) & Leatt Corp share prices. A weaker Rand offset this in the Rand-based NAV but detracted against the USD-based NAV.
- Unlisted valuations remain conservative with multiples unchanged.
Commentary: Businesses Robust & Investments Degearing
- Importantly—given its 48% of NAV—OIH is trading well, growing both footprint and store-level trading density.
- Broadly, underlying businesses are performing &, even those facing headwinds, are trading resiliently and offer upside the moment the broader economy/ies improve.
- Along with existing businesses growing their profits, other potential future fair value moves include both the Family Pet Centre (FPC) and Vehicle Care Group’s (VCG) refined business models showing success. Likewise, Trans Hex Marine’s historic cost should be fairly valued in future results.
- During H1:23, Astoria paid back some of its investment-level debt (we expect this to continue). This adds to NAV & lowers financial risk while freeing capacity to regear for another acquisition (see the cautionary noted below).
Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Under Cautionary…
- Updating Astoria’s NAV to current prices, the share price is trading at a c.24% discount to current NAV (Previously: 34%).
- If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.14.5% (Previously: 14.0%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.1213cps (Previously: 1192cps) or c.11% higher than the current share price.
- Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1440cps (Previously: 1422cps) that implies a potential return of c.33% from the current share price.
Note: The share is currently trading under a cautionary announcement due to a potential acquisition.