ARB Holdings reported growth in FY 18 revenues and stable profits with consistently strong cash generation, generous dividends, and an opportunistic post-year-end acquisition.
FY 18 revenue came in per our expectations at R2.6bn (FY 17: R2.4bn), & HEPS rose +16% to 71.7cps (FY 17: 61.9cps), which is materially higher than our forecast of 65.6cps.
The Lighting segment disappointed but was actually slightly better than our downwardly-adjusted forecasts at H1:18. Inversely, the Electrical segment performed well but slightly below our half-year expectations.
Our Thoughts: Eskom & Radiant Key Variables
Post-year end, the Group concluded a conditional acquisition of the Radiant Group. This move consolidates the Group’s position in the lighting market while materially transforming the Group’s segmental exposures; post-consolidation of Radiant, Lighting may become similar in size to the Group’s cable exposure.
A slowdown in Eskom spending has prolonged the domestic malaise. Top-level Board and management changes in the utility have been positive, and supply chain audits and related reorganization (in an attempt to both eliminate corruption in the SOE and stabilize it) are likely to blame for this drop in spending.
Logically, the spending from Eskom should materially pick up after this internal process is completed (while Eskom will come out of it stronger for having gone through this period).
Thus, we remain positive on South Africa and the sector.
Forecast, Valuation & Implied Return: Still Quality & Still Value
We update our fair value for ARH to 714cps (previously: 777cps), implying a reasonable Price Earnings (PE) of 10.0x.
Rolling our fair value forward at our CoE, we arrive at a 12m TP of 838cps (previous 12m TP: 911cps), placing the share on a comfortable Exit PE of 11.4x, and implying a return of c.34%.
Key risks to the Group are unchanged from our original Initiation of Coverage, though note that we have not taken the Radiant acquisition into account in our forecasts or valuation.
ARB Holdings maintained its revenue during a tough period that included political upheaval in South Africa, SOE paralysis, sour consumer sentiment, a sovereign downgrade and a technical recession (not officially over at the date of publishing).
The Group reported +4% y/y growth in HEPS to 61.9cps (FY 16: 59.7cps), beating our previous forecast of 61.4cps.
The Group continued to generate strong cash flow with well-managed working capital whilst adding to its store and product footprint.
Management remains committed to the organic and acquisitive growth of existing operations.
Our Thoughts: Resilience & Upside
Solid results year-after-year continue to build the Group’s track record for resilience while management put in place longer-term initiatives for growth that looks
We do note the various changing dynamics in the cabling supply market as a risk while the currently exercisable put option by Eurolux is actually a good opportunity (in our opinion).
Forecast, Valuation & Implied Return: Still Undervalued
We raise our estimated fair value for ARH to 687ps (previously: 664cps), which puts the stock on an implied Price Earnings (PE) of 11.1x.
In our opinion, this PE does not appear unreasonable against either ARH’s own history or the various comparatives in the market.
Rolling our fair value forward at our CoE we arrive at a 12m TP of 809cps (previous 12m TP: 779cps).
A 12m TP of 809cps places the share on a comfortable Exit PE of 12.9x.