Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R537m – Discount to NAV: c.39%

Q3:24 Results: Headwinds of a Stronger Rand

• Astoria reports quarterly but management only update unlisted valuations in the Q2 and Q4 reports. Thus, the key change over the Q3:24 period was a stronger Rand (c.9% stronger on a 12m-rolling basis and c.6% stronger versus the start of the current reporting period versus the USD).
• With this context, Astoria’s NAV per share increased by +2.1% in USD and decreased by 3.7% in ZAR for the Q3:24 period (as compared to NAV at the start of financial year).

Astoria’s NAV components:

Commentary: ISA Carstens (Potential) Exit Proving Solidity of NAV

• Astoria has received a non-binding offer for its stake in ISA Carstens &, along with fellow shareholders, final terms are being negotiated. While the offer is non-binding, its pricing is broadly in line with Astoria’s fair value for ISA Carstens. This gives us a great data point for the realism of management’s fair values for their unlisted investments (the 3^rd-party offer aligns with Astoria’s valuation). Finally, this potentially turns c.8% of the Group’s NAV into cash which would provide management with ammo for future investment options (i.e. embeds some exciting optionality for future capital allocations).
• Outdoor Investment Holding continues to trade well, Leatt Corp’s latest quarterly hints at a trough being reached, RECM Calibre has changed its name to Goldrush Holdings (code: GRSP), low diamond prices continue (Land is doing relatively well while Marine has its ship in dry dock for well-timed maintenance), & VCG continues corporatising and scaling.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Discount a Little Tighter

• Astoria’s share is trading at c.39% discount to the current NAV (Previously: 45%) once we update its NAV with current prices.
• If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.13.6% (Previously: 14.4%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.1216cps (Previously: 1204cps) or c.41% higher than the current share price.
• Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1433cps (Previously: 1417cps) that implies a potential return of c.66% from the current share price.