Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R496m – Discount to NAV: c.30%

FY 24 Results: Disappointing Diamond Market

• Astoria’s NAV per share decreased to 61.99 USD cents (R11.71) as at 31 December 2024, compared to 79.47 USD cents (R14.54) at the end of the previous financial year, representing a decrease of 22% in USD and 19.5% in ZAR.
• The primary drivers for the decrease in NAV were the decline in the value of Trans Hex Marine operations and the market prices of the listed assets, Goldrush and Leatt. OIH performed well during the period.
• OIH’s is exiting A-Tec (sold at approximately the original capital value) and Astoria has accepted a signed sales agreement for its 49% shareholding in ISA Carstens for R66.8m and the outstanding loan from Astoria Treasury for R4.2m.

Commentary: Upcoming Capital Allocation Decisions

• It is worth noting that both A-Tec (held in OIH) and ISA Carstens exits are at-or-above what Astoria’s NAV was valuing these investments at, which lends comforting evidence as to the tangibility of the Group’s NAV.
• Furthermore, both exits free up cash that can be deployed. We expect OIH to use most of this cash to grow while Astoria may well apply the cash freed up from ISA Carsten’s exit towards share buybacks given the discount to NAV in the share price making this action quite accretive.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Widening of Discount

• We estimate Astoria’s current NAV as $0.62 or 1149cps a share, implying that the current 800cps share price is at a 30% discount to its NAV.
• If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.15.9% (Previously: 13.6%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.966cps (Previously: 1216cps) or c.21.% higher than the current share price.

Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1150cps (Previously: 1433cps) that implies a potential return of c.44% from the current share price.