Monthly Archives: August 2025

Sabvest Capital – H1:25 Results – Apex Drives NAV Growth

Share Code: SBP – Market Cap: R3.6bn – Share Price discount to NAV: 31%

Sabvest Capital – Results Note – H1:25Download

H1:25 Results: Share buy-backs enhance growth

  • Sabvest’s Net Asset Value (NAV) grew +15% y/y versus H1:24 (or +3% versus FY 24), which, when combined with further accretive share buy-backs, saw NAV per share grow +5% to 13882cps (FY 24: 13213cps).
  • H1:25 share buybacks amounted to R69.3m (FY 24: R59.9m), or 735,000 SBP shares at a VWAP of c.9429cps (well below NAV and wonderfully accretive).
  • Importantly, valuation multiples were kept flat during the period, thus providing NAV growth of good quality.
  • Strong growth in Apex Partners and continued momentum in the recovery in ITL Holdings more than offset some disappointing performance in Amicus, Narrowtex (part of SA Bias), and Halewood SA.
  • The dividend was hiked +14% to 40cps (H1:24 – 35cps).

Thoughts: Momentum in H2:25E could rise

  • We expect continued growth from Apex (particularly as it unlocks value from DRA), and we expect ITL Holdings’ and Valemount’s respective performances to pick up momentum through the remaining year.
  • We also expect near-term recoveries in both Amicus (likely) & SA Bias’ Flowmax (likely) with a medium-term upside in Valemount (probable) & Halewood (possible).
  • Overall, though, we expect a good H2:25E performance from the Group’s businesses and their resulting investment values in Sabvest’s H2:25E NAV.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: Discounted

  • We estimate that the share is currently trading at a c.31% discount to its current 13704cps NAV and—after including a HoldCo discount against this NAV of 10% (unchanged)—we believe that the share’s fair value is around 12334cps (previously: 11798cps).
  • Rolling our post-discount fair value forward, we see the Group’s 12m TP as 14540cps (previously: 14017cps) with an implied return of +53% from these levels.
Sabvest Capital – Results Note – H1:25Download

Astoria Investments Ltd – H1:25 Results Note – Lots of Dry Powder on Hand

Share Code: ARA – Market Cap: R490m – Discount to NAV: c.28%

Astoria Investments – H1:25 – Results NoteDownload

H1:25 Results: Beyond Diamonds

  • Group NAV slipped -3.5% to $59.85 per share (FY 24: $61.99) or down -9% to 1065cps (FY 24: 1171cps) as the continued diamond bear market took the diamond investments from a c.113cps contribution to Group NAV (end of FY 24) to zero.
  • If the c.113cps diamond investments are reversed from FY 24’s NAV, the Group’s NAV would have grown slightly (+3% p/p).
  • Beyond diamonds, positive developments include a clean exit from ISA Carstens, strong performances from Leatt Corp and Goldrush, and OIH’s exit from A-Tec. Following the period, OIH repurchased some of Astoria’s shares for R105m in cash.

Commentary: Capital Allocation Options

  • Given all the realisations during (and post) the H1:25 period, the Group is currently quite cash flush, and where management allocates this capital will be pivotal in future NAV.
  • Perhaps illustrative of management’s capital allocation intentions is that one of these realisations lowered the Group’s significant exposure to OIH (i.e. dropping portfolio concentration) and another was CFD’s in Astoria’s own share.

Valuation, 12m TP & Implied Return: More than Priced In

  • We estimate that Astoria’s share is trading at c.28% discount to NAV (Previously: 36%), which includes the partial realisation of OIH, the cash receipt from ISA Carstens and Leatt Corp and Goldrush’s latest share prices (and exchange rates). Cash (& cash equivalent) now forms c.24% of the Group’s NAV.
  • With c.24% of Astoria’s NAV is net cash, the market is basically paying book value for the Group’s investments and offering investors this net cash for “free”.
  • If we take out our calculated “HoldCo discount” of c.16.3% (15.9%), we arrive at a fair value for Astoria’s shares of c.913cps (Previously: 858cps) or c.16% higher than the share price.

Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1076cps (Previously: 1020cps) that implies a potential return of c.36% from the current share price.

Astoria Investments – H1:25 – Results NoteDownload