Share Code: TRL – Market Cap: R323m – PE: 8.3x – DY: 6.2%
FY 21 Results: Sterling results, strong cash flows & good dividend
- Trellidor released strong results, reflecting the Group’s healthy recovery with revenue rising +23% y/y, cost-savings, efficiencies & lower finance costs lifting headline earnings by +181% y/y and HEPS doubling (+195% y/y) to 40.8cps (FY 20 – 13.8cps).
- Underpinning the results was strong cash generation; management declared a full-year dividend of 21cps (FY 20 – 8cps) putting the share on a juicy 6.2% Dividend Yield.
- Management continued to grow the Group’s product range (four new products were successfully launched & a commercial product range expansion is planned in the coming year) while bringing underperforming Main Centre franchisees in-house to great effect (acquired franchises grew revenue +46% like-for-like!), yet the Group also managed to control its overheads and saw a mere +4.3% y/y rise in operating expenses.
Our Thoughts: Bottom-line momentum likely to continue
- Given the Group’s tight cost control, the price increases that it will leak into the market and franchisee consolidation & growth uplift that we expect, Trellidor’s EBITDA, operating profits and, ultimate, bottom-line momentum appears likely to continue for FY 22E.
- We have raised our expectations of share buy-backs from 1.0% pa to 1.5% pa, especially if the share price remains languishing at its current market price.
- All these initiatives imply attractive upside to forward HEPS.
Forecast, Valuation and Implied Return: Undervalued & Yielding
- Our DCF Models imply that Trellidor is worth c.548cps (previously: 442cps) on a c.13.5x PE and c.7.1x EV/EBITDA.
- Rolling this fair value forward at our CoE, we arrive at a 12m TP of 656cps (previously: 532cps) implying a large 93% return from the current share price (including dividends).
- Speaking of dividends, irrespective of fair values, Trellidor shares still trade on an attractive 6.2% Dividend Yield (& Forward DY of > 7%) that looks to be comfortably sustainable.